[BOOKS] ✯ Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction ✴ Philip E. Tetlock – Ivogue.co.uk


Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction ANew York Times BestsellerAn Economist Best Book Of 2015 The Most Important Book On Decision Making Since Daniel Kahneman S Thinking, Fast And Slow Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone Would Benefit From Seeing Further Into The Future, Whether Buying Stocks, Crafting Policy, Launching A New Product, Or Simply Planning The Week S Meals Unfortunately, People Tend To Be Terrible Forecasters As Wharton Professor Philip Tetlock Showed In A Landmark 2005 Study, Even Experts Predictions Are Only Slightly Better Than Chance However, An Important And Underreported Conclusion Of That Study Was That Some Experts Do Have Real Foresight, And Tetlock Has Spent The Past Decade Trying To Figure Out Why What Makes Some People So Good And Can This Talent Be Taught In Superforecasting, Tetlock And Coauthor Dan Gardner Offer A Masterwork On Prediction, Drawing On Decades Of Research And The Results Of A Massive, Government Funded Forecasting Tournament The Good Judgment Project Involves Tens Of Thousands Of Ordinary People Including A Brooklyn Filmmaker, A Retired Pipe Installer, And A Former Ballroom Dancer Who Set Out To Forecast Global Events Some Of The Volunteers Have Turned Out To Be Astonishingly Good They Ve Beaten Other Benchmarks, Competitors, And Prediction Markets They Ve Even Beaten The Collective Judgment Of Intelligence Analysts With Access To Classified Information They Are Superforecasters In This Groundbreaking And Accessible Book, Tetlock And Gardner Show Us How We Can Learn From This Elite Group Weaving Together Stories Of Forecasting Successes The Raid On Osama Bin Laden S Compound And Failures The Bay Of Pigs And Interviews With A Range Of High Level Decision Makers, From David Petraeus To Robert Rubin, They Show That Good Forecasting Doesn T Require Powerful Computers Or Arcane Methods It Involves Gathering Evidence From A Variety Of Sources, Thinking Probabilistically, Working In Teams, Keeping Score, And Being Willing To Admit Error And Change Course Superforecasting Offers The First Demonstrably Effective Way To Improve Our Ability To Predict The Future Whether In Business, Finance, Politics, International Affairs, Or Daily Life And Is Destined To Become A Modern Classic From The Hardcover Edition.


10 thoughts on “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

  1. says:

    During the first hundred pages, I was sure to give the book a perfect score It totally caught my attention and made me want and The book made me feel like it had been written for me, someone that don t know much about predictions and forecasts, but feels like he could be good at it.Then, after the half of the book, you get a little bored because it always come back to the same thing Use number to make your predictions in a well established timeframe, always question your predictions till the time runs out, learn from the past and see beyond your conic vision.This book is very interesting and worth giving a shot It s a good mix of science and history, but you still feel like you re reading a novel I was expecting nothing from this book and g...


  2. says:

    Philip Tetlock is a professor at the University of Pennsylvania He is a co leader of the Good Judgment Project, a long term forecasting study It is a fascinating project whose purpose is to improve the accuracy of forecasts You can learn about the project on theGood Judgment website In this book you can learn the basics of how to make accurate forecasts in the face of uncertainty and incomplete facts.An amazing tournament was held, which pitted amateur volunteers in the Good Judgment Project with the best analysts at IARPA Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency The amateurs with the best records for accuracy are termed superforecasters They performed 30% better than the professional analysts, who had access to classified information This was not a simple tournament It was held over a long period of time, enough time to allow a good amount of research and thinking and discussions among team members It involved hundreds of questions These questions were asked in a precise, quantitative way, with definite time frames And besides giving predictions, players in the tournament estimated their confidence levels in each of their predictions Their forecasts, along with their estimated confidence levels went into the final scores.So, what are the qualities of a good superforecaster P...


  3. says:

    5 What a great book It will definitely appeal to the fans of Thinking, Fast and Slow, Predictably Irrational The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions and The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable.Thought provoking and full of very perceptive observations But I particularly would like to commend authors for how well this book is written This is an example of non fiction at its best There is definitely research and background science overview but each chapter is a proper story as well Philip E Tetlock and or his co author not sure who should take the credit are superb storytellers It was not only insightful but genuinely enjoyable to read this book.I usually read several books simultaneously one or two non fiction titles and a bunch of fiction stories But last week Superforecasting monopolised my reading time And it is particularly telling how well it managed to trample competition from its fiction rivals.It goes straight to my absolute best non fiction sh...


  4. says:

    When it comes to forecasting, most pundits and professionals do little better than chimps with dartboards, according to Phillip Tetlock, who ought to know because he has spent a good deal of his life keeping track Tetlock has partnered with Dan Gardner, an excellent science journalist, to write this engaging book about the 2 percent of forecasters who manage to consistently outperform their peers Oddly, consumers of forecasts generally do not require evidence of accuracy Few television networks or web sites score the accuracy of forecasts Years ago, as a stockbroker I gave very little weight to the forecasts of my firm s experts the stocks they recommended were as likely to go down as they were to go up Today, as an occasional television pundit, I m often asked to forecast electoral outcomes, so I was very curious about Tetlock s 2 percent that managed superforecasting How predictable something is depends on what we are trying to predict, how far into the future, and under what circumstances, according to Tetlock and Gardner It makes no sense to try to predict the economy ten years from now, for example But he wanted to understand how the best forecasters manage to maintain accuracy over the course of many predictions In order to find out, he launched the Good Judgement Project, which involved 2800 volunteer forecasters who worked on a series of prediction problems over several years After the first year, he ...


  5. says:

    Philip E Tetlock feels a bit too polite Sometimes it seems he is excusing wrong predictions by finding weasel words in them or interpreting them kindly instead of using the intended assertion.Just say, Thomas Friedman is a bad forecaster.Instead of reading this book I recommend reading the books he references Thinking, Fast and Slow The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable and The Signal and the Noise Why So Many Predictions Fail But Some Don tThis books feels like a superficial summary of the afore mentioned books and an attempt to combine them The central lessons of Superforecasting can be distilled into a handful of directives Base predictions on data and logic, and try to eliminate personal bias Keep track of records so that you know how accurate you and others are Think in terms of probabilities and recognize that everything is ...


  6. says:

    Me surpreendeu positivamente Tinha comprado este livro em 2015 e nem lembrava o que me motivou N o me arrependi O livro come a com a explica o de como e porque a maioria dos especialistas em previs o pol tica e similares geralmente est o errados Muitas vezes, mais errados do que tentativas aleat rias de prever o futuro o aned tico chimpanz com um dardo Philip E Tetlock fez parte de um longo estudo chamado The Good Judgment Project, onde os participantes passaram anos fazendo predi es e tendo elas avaliadas E este o principal ponto que ele traz raramente algu m que prediz o que vai acontecer avaliado com base nas previs es que fez Mas foi justamente o que fizeram nesse projeto E encontraram pessoas que conseguiam fazer previs es bastante acuradas a curto prazo, j que no longo ca tico demais Em seguida, ele explica como ess...


  7. says:

    This book was solid, though perhaps not quite as good as I hoped expected It was interesting reading, full of interesting stories and examples The author doesn t prescribe a particular method superforecasting, it appears, is about a toolbox or set of guidelines that must be used and adapted based on the particular circumstances As a result, at times I felt the author s thread was being lost or scattered however, upon reflection I realized it was part of the nature of making predictions On reflection, his guidelines are clear and should be helpful, even if they cannot provide a method for correct predictions 100% of the time.One critique I had was that the author didn t provide any statistical evidence of why the people he identified as superforecasters were good as opposed to lucky I continued to think some of the examples he gave were based on luck, not necessarily skill the author distilled a lesson ...


  8. says:

    Harry Truman famously said Give me a one handed economist All my economics say, On the one hand on the other Philip Tetlock combines three major findings from different areas of research 1 People don t like experts who are context specific and could not provide us with clear simple answers regarding complex phenomena in a probabilistic world People don t like if an expert sounds not 100% confident They reason, that confidence represents skills.2 Experts who employ publicly acceptable role of hedgehogs ideologically narrow minded and or express ideas with 100% certainty are wrong on most things most of the time General public is fooled by hindsight bias on the part of experts and lack of accountability.3 We live in the nonlinear complex probabilistic world, thus, we need to shape our thinking accordingly Those who do it foxes comparing to hedgehogs can think non simplistically become much better experts in their own field and better forecasters in general.I gu...


  9. says:

    This book features some interesting trivia about Super forecasters but when it comes to explaining evidence based practice, it was Super disappointing It starts off well with a discussion of Archie Cochrane and evidence based medicine EBM , but then it bizarrely ignores the core concepts of EBM In EBM, you look up what works and then use that info to help people instead of killing them But when Tetlock talks about social philanthropy he implies that it s evidence based as long as you rigorously evaluate what you re doing NO If your doctor gives you arsenic instead of antibiotics for your bacterial infection, that s not OK even if he does lots of lab tests afterwards to see how you re progressing In EBM, you focus on the best available evidence There s a difference between what some drug rep told you vs the conclusions of a randomized clinical trial But when Tetlock reviews the Iraq War fiasco, he argues there was a really big pile of evidence so it made sense to go to war He doesn t seem to get that a really big pile of crap is still just crap Some elements of the pro war narrative were known to be bogus before the war Others turned out to be bogus after Curveball, etc , so those were not investigated and confirmed as solid evidence beforehand either In EBM, the point of a diagnostic test is to get a predictive value This number tells...


  10. says:

    PT s Superforecasting correctly remarks upon the notable failure to track the performance of people who engaged in predicting the outcome of political events This lack of accountability has led to a situation where punditry amounts little than entertainment extreme positions offered with superficial, one sided reasoning aimed mainly at flattering the listeners visceral prejudices One problem is expressed positions are deliberately vague This makes it easy for the pundit to later requalify his position conform with the eventual outcome For example a pundit claims quantitative easing will lead to inflation When consumer inflation doesn t appear, he can claim that 1 it will, given enough time, 2 in fact, there is inflation in stock prices 3 He never said how much inflation Thus, the first task in assessing performance is to require statements of clearly defined, easily measurable criteria Once this is done, PT began a series of experiments, testing which personality characteristics and process variables led to good prediction outcomes, both for individuals and groups Key attributes include independence from ideology, an openness to consider a variety of sources and points of view and a willingness to change one s mind Native intelligence, numeracy and practical experience with logical thinking all correlate positively with prediction accuracy at least to a point But moderately intelligent and diligent individuals can often surpass the super bright, who sometimes ...


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